Why The Angel Bear?
Going into Gare Du Nord (Paris) the other day to pick up a hire car I noticed the big red bear with wings. Why was it there? And why am I mentioning it? I’ll discuss below; but first let’s look at the market.
SPY seems to be stuck in a Darvas box (again). As I anticipated, after breaking out of the bear market quite decisively it then ran out of puff and came back to test the bear threshold as support. It wasn’t as exact as I would have liked (I love it when things work out exactly) but you get the general idea.
One of the things to notice is the last 2 days have been doji candlesticks – where the market opens and closes at the same (approximately) level although it varies during the day. If you look at what actually happened intraday you can see how they are formed.
The intraday chart is not as clear as I would like, but I am working on a slow internet connection (rural France!) and my usual sources are finding it hard to cope.
So the question is – where to from here? From my perspective , everything looks normal. We’re probably in for some range-bound trading for a while – when it breaks out of the box then we’ll know where it is going.
The SPYG chart is following the SPY chart very closely, even to the 2 dojis, so all the comments about SPY are relevant to SPY.
QQQ (the Nasdaq ETF) isn’t part of the ITM strategy, but as the stocks in it form a large part of the SPY ETF it is worth keeping an eye on.
QQQ is forming a very similar pattern to both SPY and SPYG. It is in a holding pattern too.
VIX - The Volatility Index
There are no real concerns there – it is the lowest it has been since the Covid bear.
No news here. I have been too busy enjoying myself to actually settle down and do some work. I haven’t even been following what he is doing or what his results are. When I get back in August I will start it again – promise!
Why The Angel Bear?
When I saw the sculpture, I thought that it had something to do with the stock market (talk about a one-track mind) but on checking I discovered that it was created in 2015 and is to draw attention to the forthcoming extinction of polar bears due to global warming.
Naturally, I don’t want polar bears to die out, so I did a little research and came up with the following figures:
Population of polar bears:
I can’t get any more recent figures, but in 2020 the status was:
Results of three new polar bear population surveys were published in 2020 and all populations were found to be either stable or increasing.
What has this to do with the stock market? It is a reminder to look at the actual figures: see what is actually happening rather than what people think is happening.
Back In France
Back in France, near the beautiful Mont St Michel. It is one of the most beautiful places ever, and I have been coming here for decades. When I first came there were hardly any people around, it was off the beaten track. But I am shocked at how many tourists there are! – now it has 2.5 MILLION visitors a year! Crazy! It has only been a few years since I was last here and it has changed so much – not the island, but the surroundings. Standing room only!
But – as in trading – don’t do the same as the crowd. Instead of staying on the east side of the canal where there are crowds, shuttle buses, and massive parking places, I drove over a small local bridge and headed towards the island on the other side. No-one on the road. No-one parked anywhere. When the road stopped, I walked for a couple of km along a track with incredible views – like this one – and didn’t see another person. No tourists at all. So – being philosphical – doing things differently to (from?) the crowd definitely pays off.
But – the weather isn’t so great. I am craving sun and swimming, so heading south. If you want to see any more photos you can follow here : https://www.facebook.com/heather.cullen.756 .
This is just a first draft – I will fix this up later and put in the Q&A comments and send the email. Please check back later!