Denting Your Confidence

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Heather Cullen

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In The Money

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

Dent is at it again.

Harry Dent that is. The stock market’s longest-serving doomsayer tells us that there are dire times ahead. The S&P is going down by 86%.(that’s to 600, a level not seen since 1985). NVIDIA will drop to 2% of its current value (better start shorting – we’ll make a fortune!). Etc. Etc. Etc.

Dent Managed Funds

I think I have talked about this in previous blog posts. Dent used to manage funds, but not any more. According to ChatGPT:

Harry Dent is not currently managing any publicly listed funds. Dent Tactical Advantage ETF (Symbol: DENT): This ETF was launched in 2009 but was delisted in 2012 due to consistently underperforming the market​

Dire Dent Predictions

Nowadays, not managing funds. (thankfully!) Instead, according to Chat GPT:

His primary focus has been on providing market analysis and predictions through his newsletters and books.

Right.

So how has that gone?

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

Why focus on Dent?

Fair enough. Reasonable question. There are plenty more terrible forecasters I could focus on. Like Robert Kiyosaki, who wrote ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad’ way back in the nineties. 

I read it, it made a lot of sense at the time, then read several of his other books which, in my opinion, didn’t say anything new, just the same stuff for slightly different audiences. 

But clearly being a best selling author didn’t prove financially lucrative enough; he seems to have morphed into a Doomsayer SPAM merchant.

This is my emails from last week. Check this out!

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

I’m pretty sure I never signed up for this, but here are his emails from the last week alone! I totally sympathize with the paltry returns from being an author – it is a labour of love, not a money-making exercise. At best it is break-even. However, the good thing is you can take the books off the market and step away any time you like! Tempting. Very tempting.

Back to Dent?

So back to heaping scorn on Dent’s predictions, which is always fun. But don’t take my word for it, let’s ask Chat GPT:

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

Why the focus on doom sayers?

The stock market is making new highs. It brings the doomsayers out in force. The smart ones predict the crash next year or the year after. The not-so-smart this year.

However, it never ceases to amaze me that people who have such an abysmal record of predictions keep getting asked for their predictions. As Einstein said:

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

Yet we still do it! Go figure!

Triple Witching

Last Friday was triple (actually, quadruple) witching and I forgot to mention it in last week’s blog .

Heather Cullen Blog Triple Witching

 Not that it makes any different to ITM (because , of course, we have rolled out options well before) but you may have noticed the increase in volatility in the last hour of trading.

To the markets . .

Last week wasn’t too bad. A short week (Juneteenth), then a bit sideways on Thursday and Friday, but that was to be expected on the last days of the quarter. Otherwise, nothing unexpected. Let’s take a look:

SPY Charts

Technically, Thursday’s red candle was even worse than ‘dark cloud cover’- it was technically a ‘bearish engulfing’. Both of which are bearish patterns.

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

Should we be worried? Depends on who you listen to. It is easy after the fact to find patterns at the top or bottom of trends – but when you start looking you find the same patterns over and over again withing the trend. For example, there was a very emphatic bearish engulfing on late May – yet the market went higher. Of course, sometime it works – but sometimes it doesn’t. Candlestick patterns – along with all other indicators – have to be looked at in context. They are never absolute.

The weekly chart shows nothing unusual, the uptrend starting November last year is still continuing. How long for? No idea. But while it is going up ITM will ride it.

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

SPYG Charts

The SPYG charts are showing the same patterns, so the comments about SPY hold here.

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

And the weekly pattern shows SPYG making new highs and continuing on its uptrend.

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

QQQ Charts

The daily chart also shows a similar pattern to SPY, but still holding above the 10 Day SMA.

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

And the weekly chart shows the uptrend continuing:

VIX Chart

The VIX continues low. It’s a bit boring showing the same chart every week, but the VIX is an important indicator, so we have to keep an eye on it.

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

VIX Chart

Heather Cullen Blog ITMeter

The week ahead . .

The PCE (personal consumption expenditure) figures are out Friday, and expected to show whether inflation is cooling or not. My prediction is that there will be a spate of articles on whether tech is overheated and going to crash, and that AI has been overhyped.

Futures

The futuer are looking positive at this stage (5 hours to market open)

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

Against the wind

The last few days in Greece have been really trying – the Meltemi is a wind similar to the Mistral in France. From the north, relentless, annoying, making everyone short tempered and cross. Tomorrow I am leaving the Cyclades, and going to Corfu, an Ionian island which has different, lighter winds. Thank goodness.

But here’s the funny thing. This morning I took a photo of an ancient tower in Andros Chora (main town), which was said to be a 200-300 BC tower . The reason I was so excited was the arched bridge running out to it – evidence of Greek arches, I thought! Yesss!

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

Umm, no. On further research it turned out to be a 600 – 700 year old Venetian castle. Venice is in Italy, and the Romans had a bit to do with their architecture. Darn! But guess what!!!

OOOPS!!

But here’s the amazing thing: just after noon a wildfire (in Australia we call them bushfires) broke out, quite close to Chora. Lots of smoke, flames and worried people, but finally a couple of helicopters arrived from the mainland, and water-bombed. I love helicopters, and was delighted that they were filling up and flying directly over my rooftop, so was super excited and taking lots of photos.

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

THEN THIS HAPPENED:  they miscalculated and water-bombed the Venetian castle! Standing for 700 years, and water bombed today! You heard it here first!! Hopefully no damage, but here’s the image:

Heather Cullen Blog In The Money DENT Doomsayer predictions

Hard to believe it actually happened and that I got an photo!

(and BTW they are still going. The smoke is a lot less, but they are going over every 3-5 minutes, 7:10 local time. Very noisy. Starting to lessen my life-long love for helicopters.)

 

So – back to the market – fingers crossed for a good week!

 

Heather

Questions & Answers

13 Responses

  1. Options have seemed too complicated to understand. However, it is truly amazing how you utilized your math expertise, options understanding and superb communication skills to create and explain a simplified strategy. I have purchased several of your books for family members. Thank you!

    1. Hi Becky,
      Thank you for this. Two nice comments today – makes me feel guilty as I was thinking I was going to chuck the whole writing / blog lark. Maybe I will reconsider!
      Thank you!
      h

  2. Heather,
    After last night I appreciate you even more. I thought I was going to learn something from watching a stock guru giving a free? video seminar on the coming years. Instead, after 75 minutes of yadayada he was pimping, er.. pumping a wonderful $5000 (yearly) invitation to his newest “service.” Only $2500 though (this time) because we were kind enough to join him. Of course, there were all kinds of goodies included!
    Thanks for being you,
    Roger

    1. Hi Roger – I thought I had answered this – but maybe not?
      Yes, there are a LOT of questionable ‘experts’ out there – which was really the impetus to my writing the books in the first place.
      Glad you didn’t waste your money – there’s much more to be made on the stock market!
      h

    1. Yes, felt a bit like disaster porn. It was just so unbelievable – a direct hit! And I happened to have a camera.
      But it (the tower) was still standing, hopefully not damaged.
      h

  3. Dear Heather,
    Thank you again for your wonderful weekly stock market commentary. Speaking of Harry S. Dent, he was born in 1953 and in early 1970s, he was attending University of South Carolina and then Harvard Business School. Perhaps his pessimism of the stock market has to do with the Watergate Scandal and the resignation of President Nixon. Fifty years ago in the early 1970s, the SP500 index was around 100 more or less. Now fifty years later the SP500 index is around 5500 more or less. Cheers the stock market and please keep up the good works. I enjoy reading your blog.
    Sincerely,
    George Halongton in Los Angeles

    1. Thank you, George.
      Re Dent – he obviously makes a good living off his predictions and interviews and disaster books – so I guess I have an unwilling, grudging admiration for him.
      No, strike that – I don’t. Some people believe him, and that won’t do them any good at all!
      x
      h

    2. In my humble opinion… doomsayers and market pundits throw their annoyances out so that the general public can ooo and ha s. As the saying goes nothing / no one can predict the future. Markets go up and down… let’s be in when it goes up until it changes.
      Great info in your blogs and books…
      R

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