Has the Bear Bottomed?
Technically, it hasn’t been a bear market – it just feels like one. Five months of pain! But luckily the ITM rules got us out and we are safely on the sidelines waiting for a signal to get in. We narrowly avoided a bear market – if you look at the chart below you will see that the bear level was pierced in intraday trade, but closed above it then rebounded.
Last week’s rebound has been dramatic, but we can’t assume that the downturn has ended yet. You can see that in January there was a similar pattern, and then again in March when the market rebounded strongly for 2 weeks, then slumped again. What is going to happen this time? No one knows. We just have to wait and see. Not very comforting, I know, but there it is.
Amazon Delivering Wrong Book
I am still getting contacted by people who have received the wrong (i.e. copyright 2020 instead of 2022) In The Money from Amazon and asking that I sort it out. Unfortunately, I can’t do that; I have to use the same Amazon customer service as everyone else. Authors have no special rights with, or access to, Amazon; to them we are all just customers and the call center handles everything.
I have to say I am not at all impressed with their customer service. I have escalated the problem several times, but no-one ever gets back to me or does anything about it.
However, most people have received the correct book, and I have had lots of emails from people who were initially sent the wrong book and when they contacted Amazon and told them, the correct one was delivered immediately.
All I can recommend is that if you have the wrong version then contact Amazon, explain that the download was of the old version and ask that they replace it with the new one.
How's the Volatility?
A chart is worth a thousand words. Here is the VIX at the moment.
After a brief period of relative calm in early April when it was below 20 it has been above it ever since. Volatility is not necessarily bad; look at 2020 when the market was trending up strongly. But right now I wish it would just calm down and let us get on with things!
Inflation
I am noticing that in the news inflation is being treated as an ongoing irritation rather than a new major problem. There are jolly articles telling us how to cope with inflation (bring forward purchases, buy your car instead of leasing, buy fruit in season, and my favorite (sarcasm) from the Wall St Journal: Seek a higher return on happiness.
All very cute and reassuring, but what WE want to know is how high is it going to go and how long is it going to last? I am not an economist, but I know enough to realize that much of the financial press know even less. Here’s a link to an article that addresses the cause of inflation and the likely outcome: http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/05/m2-growth-slows-light-at-end-of.html
La France
I am currently en France and loving every minute of it. I love the countryside and the history and the chateaux – so when you get them all together it’s brilliant. Here’s a recent place I stayed at near La Souterraine – just lovely!
Let hope by the time for the next blog post the market has got something definite to show us and we can get back in. Au revoir, mes amis investisseurs!
