Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.
That’s all we seem to hear about in the financial press and MSM (MainStream Media). Of course, we are interested – after all it is having a marked effect on the markets – so let’s try to sort out what is real and what is hype. I don’t want to go through everything, just a couple of examples.
Steel & Aluminium
We’ve all read about the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, but what we don’t seem to hear is that this is not an increase.
- It was first imposed by Trump 1.0 on March 2018 (steel 25% and aluminum 10%) with some countries getting exemptions in 2019 for time to negotiate. agreeing to limit their imports.
- Most of these exemptions were shortly repealed (e.g. E.U on 1 June 2018).
- Under the Biden administration, the tariff on aluminum was increased to 25%, steel maintained at 25%.
- The Trump 2.0 is effectively maintaining the Biden-level tariffs, but removing the exemptions for Canada (15% of imports) and Mexico (14%)
- All other countries in the top 10 importers remain the same.
What happened in 2018 when they were first introduced?
Yes, the market did drop a bit – but look at what else was going on – check out the rate hikes. My reading is that they had a bigger impact.
China
In July 2018 a tariff of 10% – 25% was imposed on Chinese goods. By May 2019 this had increased to 25% on $112 billion worth of goods, and in September 2019 an additional tariff of 15% on $112 billion.
The Biden administration did not reverse these tariffs, but increased some:
- Electric Vehicles (EVs): Tariffs were quadrupled to 100%.
- Solar Cells: Tariffs were doubled to 50%.
- Semiconductors: Tariffs were increased to 50%.
- Steel and Aluminum Products: Tariffs were raised to 25%.
- Medical Equipment: Tariffs were also increased.
Changes 2024 / 2025
Let’s look at the changes from last year to this year:
Look, I’m no expert on US imports and tariffs, but sometimes it is good to do a little digging. Which makes it seem to me we are getting a lot of hype that is not really justified.
Chicken Little
I have mentioned before that I thought the market was looking for bad news and then over-reacting. I think that is the case right now, but there is no arguing with it. The market does what the market does.
But having a bit of a reality check with what is going on in the real world – although terribly boring – lets us put things in context. For example, I think that the Fed increases had a lot more to do with the 4Q 2018 market dive than any tariff decisions.
But, hey, scaring people makes them click on the story, and that’s what keeps the MSM in business. Remember: read the MSM with a critical eye.
LEAPS
I seem to be forever associated with LEAPS although I have never mentioned them in my books. It seems to stem from a very prolific reviewer who dogged me way back in 2021 when he took it upon himself to give me bad reviews in several places, saying that I just told everyone to by LEAPS, that ITM came from a book by Harrison Roth called ‘LEAPS’, that I used ‘hustling tactics’ and was ‘despicable’, etc.
It was followed by other reviewers saying that the books were just a front to lure people into my ‘paying advisory service’. Ha! I wish!
The reviews were read and commended by several hundred people, so I seem to always be associated with LEAPS.
For the record, I have never advised anyone to buy LEAPS., and have rarely used them myself.
(For those of you not familiar with the term it means options contracts longer than one year, to as long as 3 – 4 years. Which we have never used in ITM)
To the markets
We’re now below our exit price so I am breathing a sigh of relief – and realise I have totally underestimated my wonderful readers. I should have had more faith in you.
In the downturn of 2022, I received a lot of really nasty emails which rather bruised me and makes me very apprehensive when the market dips (what am I going to get in my inbox today?). Of course, we know that dips are a normal part of the market’s behavior, but it is human behavior to look for someone to blame when things don’t go their way.
But not this time – so thank you all for being such great human beings!
SPY Charts
The ascending triangle we saw last week was blown out of the water – on both the bull and the bear side, so I have removed it. Instead. I want to look at the trends (albeit very short ones) and their relationship to volume.
The lowest close was on 13th March, after which it started an uptrend with (mostly) higher lows and higher highs – until, of course, Friday when it had a big drop. The 2 above average volume days have been on days when the market dropped, showing that the bulls’ grip is tenuous.
Last week I mentioned the OBV indicator – On Balance Volume. How it works is this:
- If the price closes higher than the previous close, that day’s volume is added to the OBV.
- If the price closes lower, the volume is subtracted.
- If the price stays the same, OBV doesn’t change.
The theory is that volume precedes price:
- Rising OBV suggests accumulation (buying pressure).
- Falling OBV suggests distribution (selling pressure).
It’s often used to confirm trends or spot divergences between price and volume. But does it? Let’s check SPY.
What can we see? That in November when SPY was rising so was the OBV. Then, like SPY, it was in a sideways trading channel until late March when it headed south. So, the story checks out – but does it actually help us predict what is going to happen?
Personally, I don’t think so. Like most indicators it is great for describing what has just happened. But it is good to have a look at it for confirmation that what you think is happening is what is really happening.
I like it for its simplicity; I always think that the more complicated the indicator, the further away from the actual data (and reality) you get, and that’s not good.
When I am working with charts I like a nice clean chart – 2 SMAs, support and resistance lines and volume are usually all I work with. I’ve seen screens so complicated that you can hardly see the price action – but don’t be fooled. When it comes to stock charts more is not better.
But to the long term chart.
It shows that the support we were hoping for at 560 didn’t hold. The next possible support is around 540, and after that 520. WE touched the correction threshold of 551 on the 13 March, and it looks as though we are heading that way again after Friday’s close of 555.66. But we are still some way off the threshold of the bear market at 490.
SPYG Charts
SPYG is showing exactly the same pattern as SPY, so please read the SPY comments. There is one big difference: it is already in correction territory. However, it is not yet in a bear, that needs it to drop below 73.91.
The long term chart is equally as dismal as for SPY.
QQQ Charts
The QQQ chart is also showing the same patterns as SPY. I’ve put OBV (On Balance Volume) on it so that you can compare the two. The correction threshold for QQQ is 485.57, and QQQ is currently 468.94, so QQQ is most definitely in correction, and has been trading there for most of March. The bear threshold is 431.62 so it isn’t there yet, quite a way to go.
The weekly chart is as dismal as SPY and SPYG; there may be support around 450. I hope so. I don’t want a bear market – bull markets are much more relaxing and I’m going off for my 4 months travelling and don’t want to be hassled about bear trading which is much more intense than bull trading.
VIX Chart (Volatility)
The VIX has popped up again, it’s now over 20 so we are out of low-volatility territory. I notice that I’ve seen the pattern before – see the 2 ellipses. Am I reading too much into this? Possibly. Probably. You can start seeing things that aren’t really there sometimes.
ITMeter
The week ahead
I was pondering what to write while floating around in the ocean this morning, when I saw a dark patch a little way off. I fancied it was moving, so I quickly retreated to the shore. It was just a small patch of weed, not the fearsome tiger shark of my imagination (there had been a shark attack there a few days ago so it was on my mind).
I went back into the water. And started thinking about the blog, and the current market situation. Is it a bear? Or a correction? All bears start as a correction, but not all corrections turn into bears.
It’s a bit like seeing an ominous black fin when you’re swimming; the best action is to get back on the sand and then decide.
It’s a dolphin? Great, OK to go back into the water.
It’s a shark? Glad we got out when we did.
Just because we are out of the market after our ITM signal does not mean that we are definitely headed to a bear market. This may be the mother of all bear traps, and we are caught in it. But maybe not. In either case, the sidelines are the safest place to be right now.
The futures
They are looking gloomy, but its 11 hours to market open. But isn’t it great to look at something like that and not get that sinking feeling?
Fingers crossed or uncrossed – it doesn’t matter to us until we get our IN signal!
Heather
Q & A
Photo by Haniel Espinal on Unsplash
Photo by Chase Baker on Unsplash
Photo by Nicolette Villavicencio:
41 Responses
Hi Heather
First let me say that I love your blog and can’t wait to read it every Monday morning.
QQQ has dropped into bear territory and everything is there to signal a ITMB get in. Would you recommend doing it at this time? The August and September 570 and 565 puts all meet your criteria the way I am reading things. Am I right or did I miss something. What do you think?
I know your book says it use spy but do you think QQQ. Would work.
Hi Jim – I actually talk about this in this week’s blog – can you have a look there?
thanks
h
Hi Heather
Thank you for your great work, as always! I will be going to the UK for three weeks and absolutely hate trying to follow the markets when I am gone. Will you post if we get a bear signal? I believe we are still quite a ways away from that event.
Best wishes, Roger
HI Roger – yes I will still be following the markets and posting – although I hate working on a little laptop without my big screens. But I also like to travel light.
The period mid june to mid july will be challengin as I am on a boat going to Greenland / Iceland and the arctic circle – no idea what the comms will be like.
Have fun in the UK, hope that the weather is kind to you.
h
We all have friends… My friend is in variable annuities and about the time of the death cross He bought into some fixed annuities to catch the 5.15 % – I was asked if I got out – which is why I’m here. Anyway … since I was one of the late to get in when the death cross happened i have a loss… Hmm what’s worse a loss or giving back all that was gained. Federal Notes are about a year ( not good if the market turns north again ) treasury bills are about 3 months. Switching gears here I don’t think trump wants to tackle the 32 trillion debt here so this is prolly a bear trap as you say…
r
I meant to comment Monday but I have been busy. Good commentary Girl. Another notch in your gun handle on the wisdom or construction of your timing signals. What you are doing is in the worthy footsteps of people like Dick Fabian, Norman Fosback and many others. One of my favorites is Shoal Berer, who nobody, but me, has ever heard of. You and Fabian have the simplest way to beat the market although I have never been able to stand drawdowns or missing so much upside as following Fabian’s 39 week SMA results in. I made a small profit on my small upside short term bet but not worth the trouble. Thank God for my stops and thanks again.
Hey Tommy – will go an check these people – you are right – haven’t heard of them.
But some of the most famous traders are . . . .questionable . . .(Harry Dent, anyone?) and some of the great ones are unknown.
So will look.
Thank you!
h
Schadenfreude
Just ordered Shoal Berer’s book on Amazon
just sitting back and listening to the chatter but the one thing I’m not hearing is the naysayers, the ones who may not believe in the system, but are sure happy they got out of the market when the death cross showed up…proof is always in the pudding
Hey Michael – yes, I am very happy we got out when we did – makes it amusing rahter than stressful to watch what is going on and how everyone is reacting.
h
Dear Heather,
Speaking of the Federal Reserve established in 1913, it was Alexander Hamilton , the first Secretary of the Treasury nominated by George Washington, who laid the Foundation for a strong federal national bank while Thomas Jefferson and James Madison were against it. The Federal Reserve and the US Military Department work as two unofficial branches of the government along with the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial Branches. Hopefully, President Trump and Elon Musk can inspect the Federal Reserve and the Military Industrial Complex and make them more efficient for the 150 plus million American tax payers.
Sincerely,
George Henry
Hey George Henry – I’m not across that much detail – i just wonder if the Fed as currently constitutewd and with the powers that it has is suitable for today, over 100 years later.
I am reading a biography of Jesse Livermore (the great bear of Wall St), who lived through that era and was part of the bail out, and am amazed that something which was a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ to save the stock market is still relevant.
However, I am in no way an expert on this – but from the outside there are many questions raised!
Will continue to read.
x
h
Heather.
Your weekly fact based analysis and commentary about the markets and world economy is unparalleled. It’s always a pleasure to come here and learn.
Tariffs. You are not alone on your thoughts. The negative hype has created unnecessary fear.
Now, in my humble opinion tariffs will work and work well. In the interim a little time and pain may be necessary. The stock market will soon thrive once again!
FWIW, I have been saying abolish the Federal Reserve before saying abolish the Federal Reserve was cool. I’m ready for Silver Certificates (or how about Gold Certificates) to start circulating again as USD. Let’s get rid of all the fiat Federal Reserve Notes.
Excelsior!
~John
Thank you John!
I have always had reservations about the Fed – starting from its creation on Dec 23 1913! Like the courts, they are political appointees which always leads to the suspicion of partisanship. If you look at the current make up of the Fed:
Jerome H. Powell – Nominated by President Barack Obama
Philip N. Jefferson – Nominated by President Joe Biden
Michael S. Barr – Nominated by President Joe Biden
Lisa D. Cook – Nominated by President Joe Biden
Christopher J. Waller – Nominated by President Donald Trump
Michelle W. Bowman – Nominated by President Donald Trump
Adriana D. Kugler – Nominated by President Joe Biden
5 Democrat appointees – 2 Republican – so it does seem a little lopsided to me!
h
If I may interject and I am no expert on the Fed. To me every Fed President that the U. S. has had in my Adult lifetime has been and Idiot, except for Paul Volker. He said he would break the back of inflation and he did. He almost broke my back when I was a young man raising the prime rate to I believe 21% but he did break the back of inflation that remained broken for years. For me though it was horrendous. My timing was horrible. I quit practising Law to get into the Financial Markets. My wife got pregnant with our first and only child and quit her job and we bought a new house and we bought a new car for the new baby. I survived but I still don’t know how.
Hey Tommy – I remember those interest rates!
I had just bought my first investment property and they put the interest rate up too 24% on my loan. I remember yelling at the bank manager ‘it would have been cheaper to buy this on mastercard’!. He was unmoved. I was apoplexic.
But, yes, we survived.
No choice!
h
Dear Heather,
Thank you for your weekly blogs as always. April 2, 2025 is Liberation Day according to President Trump. This event reminds me of President Nixon implementing Nixon shock in 1971 and it lasted until 1975.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock#:~:text=Nixon%20directed%20Treasury%20Secretary%20Connally,exchange%20their%20dollars%20for%20gold.
Hey George – yes, we are all waiting to see what is going to happen.
Re Nixon and gold – I always wonder how the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 (that the American people could no longer hold gold, with the exception of jewelry and collectors’ coins.) went down and if people got terrobly upset.
I imagine so!
h
Bowley is great at calling bottoms and tops. Bottoms coincide closely with 10/200 sma. But top calls are MUCH earlier than the 10/200 sma. Its a free subscription. You might find his info interesting and beneficial.
https://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2025/03/sp-500-drops-quickly-to-test-k-379.html
HI Jesse – posted it here as others may be interested in checking this out as well.
thank you!
h
sometimes… I’m glad i know nothing!
r
? I’m sure you are an expert on something – just be thankful its not tariffs. sooooooooooooooo boring!
h
Love it Heather.. keep up the good work.!
Thank you Brian!
Heather,
So, you did some digging with regards to tariffs and yet you didn’t provide any sources for where you got your information. You admit you’re not an expert, and yet you want us to read MSM with a critical eye…I guess the critical eye should also be with regards to any source of information…including your sources and you! Thanks for doing the digging…but without knowing what your sources are…I’m not sure I’m willing to blindly believe your numbers because I don’t know where they came from and they may or may not be true! Still love you though!
Hi Jeff – I took the info from many different sources – here’s the first 4 pages – if you want more then please let me know:
https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/03/no-april-fools-joke-april-2-tariff-actions-are-expected?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://nypost.com/2025/03/26/us-news/trump-announces-25-tariffs-on-all-foreign-made-cars/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-trump-has-very-good-call-with-canadas-carney-ahead-of-reciprocal-tariffs-191201476.html
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/trump-tariffs-status-canada-mexic-china-eu/743577/
https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/03/27/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/president-trump-orders-25-global-tariff-automotive-imports
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-adjusts-imports-of-automobiles-and-automobile-parts-into-the-united-states/
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/president-trump-orders-25-global-tariff-automotive-imports
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-adjusts-imports-of-automobiles-and-automobile-parts-into-the-united-states/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/joe-biden-china-tariff-hikes-ev-battery-semiconductor-final/727014/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/28/nx-s1-5089990/what-expected-tariffs-on-chinese-imports-may-mean-for-americans-and-their-jobs?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/28/nx-s1-5089990/what-expected-tariffs-on-chinese-imports-may-mean-for-americans-and-their-jobs?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/joe-biden-china-tariff-hikes-ev-battery-semiconductor-final/727014/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/joe-biden-china-tariff-hikes-ev-battery-semiconductor-final/727014/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_policy_of_the_Joe_Biden_administration?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_policy_of_the_Joe_Biden_administration?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.reuters.com/world/whats-trumps-april-1-trade-reports-ahead-us-reciprocal-tariffs-2025-03-28/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/28/china-us-relationship-donald-trump-tariffs-partners?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/does-donald-trump-know-what-hes-doing-on-china-h9lzbjxkf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.the-sun.com/motors/13894639/donald-trump-auto-tariff-car-payment-interest/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/president-trump-orders-25-global-tariff-automotive-imports?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.ft.com/content/5c1d34be-301d-4342-9272-e2296d37572c?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-car-prices-tariffs-f6bcddbb?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Trump_tariffs?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_100_days_of_the_second_Donald_Trump_presidency?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_100_days_of_the_second_Donald_Trump_presidency?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.thesun.ie/news/14877674/trump-threatens-200-per-cent-eu-wine-tariff/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.thesun.ie/news/14877674/trump-threatens-200-per-cent-eu-wine-tariff/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.ft.com/content/5c1d34be-301d-4342-9272-e2296d37572c?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bidens-car-tech-ban-is-powerful-new-weapon-against-chinese-evs-2024-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-chinese-ev-market-share-overseas/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.energytech.com/emobility/article/55239863/navigating-change-the-impact-of-tariffs-and-elections-on-the-future-of-the-us-ev-market?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/president-trump-expands-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-all-countries-effective-march-12?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-april-2-tariffs-what-we-know-so-far-as-the-white-house-shifts-its-strategy-8da5b6c1?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/tracking-trump-and-latin-america-trade-tariffs-automobile-industry?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/tracking-trump-and-latin-america-trade-tariffs-automobile-industry?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://apnews.com/article/a9d714eea677488ef9397547d838dbd0?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://apnews.com/article/a9d714eea677488ef9397547d838dbd0?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-finalizes-section-301-tariff-increases-imports-china?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/president-trump-expands-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-all-countries-effective-march-12?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-finalizes-section-301-tariff-increases-imports-china?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/president-trump-expands-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-all-countries-effective-march-12?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/30/trump-administration-tariff-steel-aluminum-eu-trade-tension?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/30/trump-administration-tariff-steel-aluminum-eu-trade-tension?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/president-trump-expands-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-all-countries-effective-march-12?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/nx-s1-5341767/trump-trade-tariffs-imported-cars?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.npr.org/2025/03/26/nx-s1-5341767/trump-trade-tariffs-imported-cars?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.ft.com/content/8d37105e-9a69-4bde-9463-beccd413695a?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/president-trump-expands-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-all-countries-effective-march-12?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.ft.com/content/8d37105e-9a69-4bde-9463-beccd413695a?utm_source=chatgpt.com
There were lots more but I am bored looking at all this history. Feel free to check them and tell me where I am wrong!
x
h
Thanks Heather! Wow….that’s why we all love you!! I now pronounce you an expert on Tariffs. 😉
Thank you Jeff – although I must say it was incredibly boring research, little bits here and there, nothing coherent or easy!
h
Well done, Heather. Thank you for all you do. Your insights are most welcome!!
Thank you David!
Though Trump’s tariffs seem harsh and arbitrary, America’s burgeoning trade deficit and debt are real and need to be addressed urgently. How convenient it would be if the world agreed on one universal tax for all!
HI Jay – I agree everything would be simpler – but imagine getting everyone to agree!
The trade deficit in the US is massive, and needs to be addressed. Here in Australia we haven’t got such a large deficit, but our rate of increase is the highest in the world, I understand so we’ll catch you up soon.
I wish our politicians (on all sides of the fence) realized that you can’t keep spengin and taxing for ever – eventually you run out of money, oncluding borrowed money.
Humph!
h
glad it was a patch of weeds… are we in treasury bills or equivalent? My friend got into a fixed annuity guaranteed at 5.15 %. I’m interested in how you handle the sidelines. As long as it’s making something rather than just in the brokerage account.
r
Hey Randy – yes so am I – heres what happened last week: https://www.9news.com.au/videos/national/swimmer-bitten-by-shark-at-popular-perth-beach/cm8prb3zi00060hmj1crg865i
Its not right at the beach I swim at, a little bit south, but close enough!
h
Author Bill Bryson quips in In A Sunburned Country that everything in Australia is trying to kill you…
https://a.co/d/9n54rdG I have traveled to Australia once and I am still here. Hopefully I will get back someday.
Hi – too funny!
I always am surprised (when overseas) that people keep telling me how dangerous it is.
Its a bit like traffic; you just get used to it.
For example redbacks (poisonous spiders) like to live in outside shady places – like wooden pool lougers that havent been used over winter – so you know where they are. Snakes – last winter I was baled up on my river walk (I live between the river and the ocean so cna walk to either in a few minutes) at 5 o’clock at night in the winter by 2 tourists who were owrried about snakes!
Personally, i hate goannas (big lizards) more than snakes – I know they are not poisonous but they are really creepy.
I guess it is what you are used to – my children used to claim I was trying to kill them crossing roads!
Go figure.
x
h
Don’t fixed annuities usually have early withdrawal penalties? That wouldn’t be good for when you want to get back in the market and haven’t reached the no-penalty time frame. I put my out-of-market funds in a treasury fund (VUSXX) that currently has a 4.25% 7-day yield or 4.33% compounded. The shares have a fixed price of $1.00, so it’s like a savings account in that respect. If you need the cash, you can sell it at day-end and have the cash the next day. I think Heather said you have 3 days to pay for new purchases, so if it applies here, you could invest it in ITM before days-end.
HI Juimbert & Randy – sorry, Randy, didn’t answer the last bit of your question – personally I am staying in cash because I want to be able to move fast if we see our ITM IN – I suspect we are in the mother of all bear traps and not headed for a bear market – but that is only my opinion.
I am actually finding being in cash quite soothing . . . its adding to my holiday-anticipation mood!
h
Why are you so concerned about moving fast? I thought ITM was supposed to leave some “white space” after occurrence of a Golden or Death Cross, before buying or selling. Doesn’t that mean waiting until the next day?
Yes, that is exactly right – there is a specific day to get in (1.e. the day after confirmation signalled by the shite space).
I just meant that if you are tied up in other things you may not have the cash available on that day, as in you might have to wait for clearance, the time the bank takes, selling etc.
Hope this clears it up.
h
And forgot the bit about alternative investments – I am staying in cash – my guess is that we wont be on the sidelines very long. I think that once everyone had got over the tarif wobbles then things should stabilize , and I think the US economy will ge very well.
But thats just a guess.
I am not going to tie up money in case i want to move fast.
Hope this helps.
h