The Bull Market Lives On!
Hi everyone! Thank you all for the emails about the use of the term ‘bull market’ that Microsoft has deemed offensive and non-inclusive, wanting me to instead use the ‘non-gendered’ term ‘favorable market’. Every email was supportive of the traditional term, and no one said they were offended, so in the interests of clarity, plus the fact that it is a time-honored name that everyone understands, I will keep on using ‘bull market’.
But What About THIS Bull Market?
I have to say, I am completely fed up with this market. This has been the worst start to a year that I can remember, and I read the other day that it is the worst start of a year for more than 50 years. Certainly, it has been extremely unpleasant and dispiriting, and we are almost halfway through it. But thankfully, ITM got us out early and has kept us out of the worst of it. We avoided an additional 11.5% drop in SPY and instead are just interested spectators.
Last Friday (the 13th !) was an up day and formed a clear MORNING STAR candlestick pattern which could also be classified as an ABANDONED BABY, depending on the definition. Some say that the gap between the candles is between the bodies, others claim that it must include the shadows – but who’s to say who is right? If we use the first definition it IS an abandoned baby, if we use the second then it isn’t. Have a look for yourself:
In any case both the morning star and abandoned baby are bottom reversal patterns, so let’s hope that this is one of the occasions that they are correct. We’ll find out on Monday. If it is trading higher then that is confirmation, if lower then it is a failed pattern. Fingers crossed.
But it’s NOT a Bear Market
Well, not just yet anyway Take a look at the chart. The top horizontal line is the start of correction territory, the bottom a bear market.
You can see that the reversal (if it is one) is just above the bear market level. So no bear trades are indicated yet.
Sell in May and Go Away
That’s the saying, but I am not sure if it is true as I haven’t backtested it, but I have decided to follow the advice anyway. I am already out of the market (thank you ITM!!) and I am going to France for the summer, probably Italy and Switzerland as well.
A few years ago, I vowed I would never have another winter (I live in Australia, and while the winters are pleasantly warm the days are short and that makes me feel dreary). The last time was 2019 when I spent the summer drifting around France and the UK and had a wonderful time. I was intending to do it every year but for the last 2 years, Covid prevented travel. Now we are over that so it is back on again this year – hooray!! Flying in to CDG on Wednesday, then back to Aus in September, in time for spring.
While I am away, I will keep updating the blog every 2 weeks but I will be working on a laptop without all my nice big screens and fancy software, so it may look a little different. But hopefully not. My brain is a bit flat, I need to refresh it!
One of my favorite chateau hotels! Can’t wait! Gorgeous! (and the food is brilliant)
New Version of eBook
The Amazon headache confirmed to my decision to go ‘on sabbatical’. It is very frustrating to have people email you saying that Amazon has sent them the wrong book and asking you to do something about it when I can’t. I have to use the same Amazon customer service that you do, and I can honestly say that I have spent hours on the phone with them, explaining the problem, and escalating it to a higher, more experienced officer. They promise they will fix it and let me know – but of course, no one ever rings back jus emails you a link to the FAQ. Not helpful.
If you have bought the new book (copyright 2022) but Amazon delivered the old eBook (copyright 2020) then Amazon should update it for free to the copyright 2022. They have done this for a lot of readers, so do try if you got the old one.
The paperback and hardback should also be copyright 2022 – again, if they have sent you the wrong one get onto them.
In Conclusion
So – my plane leaves in less than 2 days, I need to organize myself and my stuff and get moving. But I will be watching the market when it opens on Monday and keeping my fingers crossed that we are out of this annoying downturn.
