AI and ITM
AI and ITM. Sitting on the verandah at the Galle Face hotel in Colombo waiting to go to the airport for my flight home, I was pondering my future – well, the next 12 months to be precise. I’ve been considering some ideas: Writing one last book, combining the bull and the bear and bringing […]
Covid: Perfect Storm
Covid and the Perfect Storm. Covid affected most of us. I’m not talking about the disease itself, but the response by governments all over the world. Who can forget not being able to travel outside your country, your state or more than 5km from your home? Being confined to your house? Being coerced into having […]
Marking Time
Marking Time I had planned to do this blog on confirmation bias and narrative fixation, but given what is currently happening in the world, that all seems a bit irrelevant. The Iran / Israel situation has rapidly evolved, and the outcome seems certain, but how much damage can be done in the meantime? Th Straits […]
Planning to Lose
Stop Losses: Planning to lose? I am often asked why I don’t use stop losses – after all practically every financial adviser recommends them. Here’s what some say: Charles Schwab: “A stop order can help protect profits and limit losses.” Fidelity: Advises placing stop losses “to manage risk on volatile stocks or to limit downside […]
Anchoring Problem
The Anchoring Problem Quick question: what did you pay for your first car? I’ll bet you remember. Mine cost $430 (it was a long time ago, and it was a gutless wonder.). I’ll bet you remember what you sold it for too (unless it fell apart, like mine). But what did you pay for your […]
Market Sentiment
Measuring Market Sentiment. After last week’s unusual blog writing circumstances, I was musing on emotions and the role they play in life and in the markets. I read some articles, and this caught my eye: Notably, we are in one of the longest stretches of more extreme bearish sentiment outside structural bear markets. Really, I […]