Grin & Bear It
Bear Markets: Shock vs Grind We’re not in a bear market. Not yet. That matters – because how a bear arrives tells you how it behaves. Not all bears are the same. Some hit like a car crash. Others just slowly drain the life out of the market. Let’s look at two very different bears. […]
Bull Euphoria?
The Start of Euphoria? I started to feel a bit twitchy recently. Too many positive headlines! When the news is gloomy, we know we’re not in euphoria, and that’s comforting. But when optimism dominates every front page, history suggests we’re getting close to the end of the bull’s run. Your browser does not support the […]
Bull Markets
How long do bull markets last? What we are really asking is : how long is THIS bull market going to last? And, of course, we don’t know – but we can look at what has happened in the part and figure out what is likely to happen. The Last 40 Years Going back to […]
Bye Bye Bear!
Bye Bye to the Bear! At least for the present. The recent dip, while unsettling, seemed to lack conviction. It had – to me – the hallmark of a hysterical reaction to political doom sayers, rather than a measured response to economic conditions. But you can never be sure, hence the decision to get out […]
Wild Ride!
What a Wild Ride! Yes, it’s been a crazy ride! Although we didn’t actually break a record, we were very close. The rise from the close of the day before was 11.69%, and was the second highest since SPY started in 1993. The GFC Won Not surprisingly, the ‘winner’ was during the GFC. On 13 […]
It’s a Bear!
The bear is back! Yes, the bear is back, but its still a baby. And what a week! QQQ and SPYG are both in bear territory, and SPY isn’t far behind. I had meant to do this week’s blog on AI and the Hype Cycle, but in view of the crazy goings-on this week I […]