Riding the Bull
Riding the Bull. Readers are getting twitchy. ‘Shouldn’t we get out now? We’ve made profits, wouldn’t it be wise to quit when we are ahead?’ I’m getting lots of messages along these lines. ‘Take the money and run’ sounds like wise advice – but is it? Loss Aversion Traders tend to realize gains too […]
Black Swan Trading
Black Swans & Long Tails. Black swan events are unpredictable and high-impact events that disrupt financial markets – like the GFC and Covid. Black swan trading involves preparing for and capitalizing on these events. You may remember the film ‘The Big Short’ where betting against the housing bubble of 2007-8 led to immense profits. Tail […]
Are We There Yet?
Are We There Yet? Identifying the top of the market is very easy in hindsight. It always seems so obvious, and everyone is an expert after the fact. But it’s not quite so obvious when you are hard up against the right hand side of the chart! I thought it would be good to look […]
Financial Advisors
Financial Advisors. OK, maybe I’ve got it in for financial advisors. I am not one myself, and have never been interested in being one. But I am aware of the draconian penalties if you give financial advice without having the qualifications, which is why I have disclaimers everywhere. Conventional ‘wisdom’ I am continually astounded at […]
Big Waves & NVIDIA
Big Waves & NVIDIA. Well, last week it was all about NVDIA. What a ride! I know NVDA is a single stock and I caution about getting involved with individual stocks, but NVIDIA was important last week because it was reporting earnings and guidance which was going to affect the whole market. We were at […]
New Highs & Euphoria
New Highs and Euphoria. The market has been making new highs – but are we in euphoria? Bloomberg thinks so: The Bank of America thinks so: Although they could be accused of hedging their bets. Only 2 months ago they were saying: One of them is going to be right – but which one? Lets […]