Gambler’s Fallacy
| Why Smart People Go Broke | You’ve just thrown 20 heads in a row; what are the chances of the next toss being a head? Of course, we all know the answer – at least, in our logical brain. The coin has no memory, no motive, and no awareness of what came before. The […]
Grin & Bear It
Bear Markets: Shock vs Grind We’re not in a bear market. Not yet. That matters – because how a bear arrives tells you how it behaves. Not all bears are the same. Some hit like a car crash. Others just slowly drain the life out of the market. Let’s look at two very different bears. […]
Psychology of Boredom
The Psychology of Boredom. Since late October, SPY and QQQ have been going nowhere. Plenty of headlines. Plenty of “analysis.” but the reality is just motion without progress. Push to the top of the range. Fail. Drift lower. Hold. Push up again. Rinse. Repeat. Your browser does not support the audio element. An expert on […]
Why Bother?
Why bother with charts? It was a question that set my back on my heels the other day – along the lines of ‘if we have clear ITM signals for buying and selling why bother with candlesticks, charts, and all that?’ A fair question. I sat down with a cup of coffee to think about […]