Chapter 1: Monkeys & Markets
Blindfolded monkeys, dartboards, and why most professionals still fail to beat the market.
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Blindfolded monkeys, dartboards, and why most professionals still fail to beat the market.
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View Chapter 5 ResourcesA market condition where prices fall, likened to a bear raising its paws to “crash DOWN”. These markets can drop with breath-taking speed and often catch investors by surprise.
A market condition where prices are rising, likened to a bull lowering its head to “toss UP”. These markets tend to climb slowly and are generally considered easier and more predictable to trade than bear markets.
Sensationalised headlines or articles formatted as lists (for example, “5 secrets to a better sex life” or “5 stocks to buy right now”) designed primarily to generate clicks and advertising revenue rather than to provide useful information.
A brief rally during a bear market where prices bounce, causing investors to believe the worst is over before the market drops again.
An approach to trading based on the quote: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
An acronym for “Fear of Missing Out”, a psychological trigger that often causes people to buy into the market at the wrong time, especially near a market top.
A simple, rule-based strategy described as capable of beating the market by a factor of 10 over the last 30+ years (for example, if the market goes up 10%, the strategy goes up about 20%). It includes signals to exit calmly at a profit before a crash and rules to profit during bear markets.
The peak of a bull market, characterised by overwhelming optimism, positive headlines, “black-box” system advertisements, and amateur investors (such as taxi drivers) giving stock tips.
A concept from A Random Walk Down Wall Street, illustrating that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a stock list could build a portfolio that performs as well as one selected by financial experts.
A metaphor for market analysis. The “waves” represent short-term noise and detail that experts often fixate on, while the “tide” represents the broader directional trend of the market that smart traders watch.
Distinguished in the text as: “Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad.” In trading, this is the difference between having data and knowing how to apply it successfully.
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