Historical Performance of ITM Strategy

[George Henry]

2023 ITM Strategy Performance

We’ve now at $469.33 which means on the current trade we are up 8% (16% at 100% leverage). So, if we add up (at 100% leverage):

-1% +14% + 16% = 29%

So, we have made 29% for the year. Not exactly earth shattering I admit, but we did beat the market which went up 22%. We need to remember that we are doing a bull market strategy and that the market this year has been emerging from a bear market & has not exactly been a bull market!
SPYG Performance
Like SPY we had a golden cross in February, and so got into the market at around $54.70, only to be sadly disappointed as it proved to be short-lived, and we exited a few days later at $52.73, losing 3.6% (7.2% leveraged) Ouch. Not happy. At the end of March we reentered at $55.73, a higher price. Since then we have stayed in the market as there hasn’t been a death cross in SPY, and so we are sitting on a gain of 15.7% (31.4% leveraged)

-7% + 31% = 24%

So for the year we are up 24%, not great when SPYG itself went up 28%. Not one of my success stories!

[Jimbert]

I don’t see the SPY 10/200ma or even a 10/100ma Golden Cross in Feb 2024 that you referred to. I don’t see ANY 10/200ma Golden Crosses other than one shortly after there were 200 days to average.

[Jimbert]

To answer my own question, I discovered that the reason I wasn’t seeing any Death Crosses was that I was zoomed out too far. When I zoomed in so that I could see daily prices rather than monthly, then I could see them.

[George Henry]

Thank you, Jim.

[George Henry]

Heather Cullen says:
March 15, 2025 at 6:25 AM
HI Jim, no I havent done that specifically, but here is a list of the ITM and market account values by year:
1994 $1,007 $978
1995 $746 $960
1996 $1,487 $1,290
1997 $2,058 $1,562
1998 $3,733 $2,141
1999 $4,612 $2,714
2000 $5,814 $3,262
2001 $5,650 $2,904
2002 $5,650 $2,648
2003 $5,307 $2,044
2004 $8,603 $2,570
2005 $8,394 $2,917
2006 $8,040 $3,005
2007 $10,401 $3,414
2008 $10,547 $3,663
2009 $10,547 $2,261
2010 $15,768 $2,922
2011 $18,444 $3,294
2012 $14,887 $3,450
2013 $18,889 $3,918
2014 $32,350 $4,967
2015 $38,283 $5,779
2016 $29,542 $5,614
2017 $37,530 $6,301
2018 $56,835 $7,767
2019 $54,599 $7,133
2020 $75,842 $9,383
2021 $83,368 $11,259
2022 $146,176 $14,289
2023 $95,883 $11,531
2024 $123,040 $14,637
2024 $181,362 $17,345
Sorry, can’t attach spreadsheet – but you should be able to copu and paste from that.
h
Reply

[Jimbert]

Thanks for that data, George!

I put it into a spreadsheet and calculated 1, 3, 5, and 10 year moving averages of the ITM yields. I tried to copy & paste it in here, but text mode totally messed up the formatting and columns. And a picture mode paste did nothing. But in summary, the average 1,3,5, and 10 year moving averages for ITM were, respectively, 22.61% 48.80% 77.00% 777.27% 383.97%. Yeah, average of a moving average. Not sure if that’s a thing, but there it is for what it’s worth. Oh, the average 1 year moving average (there it is again 😉 ) for SPY was 11.37%; 1/2 of ITM’s. I didn’t calculate the other durations for SPY. It’s amazing that ITM’s final account balance was over 10X SPY’s. A couple early near doublings helped a lot with that, when SPY never even got close to that happening.

If you know of a way to copy & paste a spreadsheet table here, I’m open to suggestions. I don’t have a web page to paste a link to, which looks like is supported.

[George Henry]

Dear Jim,
Thank you for your analysis of ITM Method, very helpful and delightful. It takes ITM about 15 years to increase 10 times while it takes the SP500 Index about 20 years to 25 years to increase 10 times.

1995: $1k
2010: $10k
2025: $100k
2040: $1m
2055: $10m

My age will be 80s in 2055 like the ages of President Biden and President Trump.

I expect the ITM to reach to $1m by 2040. I round up or down the year and amount for easy calculations.

[George Henry]

In The Money provides 10 times of return compared to SP500 Index Return

Below is a projection of ITM increases 10 times every 15 years versus SP500 Index increases 10 times every 20 years

ITM versus SP500 Index
1990 $1k, 1990 $1k
2005 $10k, 2010 $10k
2020 $100k, 2030 $100k
2035 $1mil, 2050 $1mil
2050 $10mil

[George Henry Albert Edward]

The SP500 Index is up 88% in the past 5 (2020-2025) years and up 160% in the past 10 years (2015-2025) as of April 15, 2025.

[Jimbert]

What is ITMS?

[George Henry]

Hi Jim,

ITMS means In The Money Small Account.

[George Henry]

In The Money Bull and Bear Performance
it increases 10 times every 10 years

1993: $1k
2003: $10k
2013: $100k
2023: $1mil
2033: $10mil
2043: $100mil
2053: $1billion

[Author]

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