Trade the tide, not the waves
Well, I’m back from Melbourne, the hats have been put away, and I’ve made a decision.
This will be my last weekly blog.
It’s not a decision I’ve made lightly. I’ve been thinking about it for some months. And, rather appropriately, it comes down to something I’ve been telling readers for years: don’t fight the trend.
It seems I haven’t been particularly good at taking my own advice.
The world has changed
When I first started writing about the ITM Plan, the idea was quite simple. I’d spent years researching and developing a way of investing that worked for me, and I wanted to explain it. I never intended to create an ongoing publishing operation, complete with books, a website, weekly market commentary, calculators, charts, an AI assistant and a growing collection of other resources.
But one thing led to another. People were interested. They asked questions. I wrote more. I added things. I improved things. And I thoroughly enjoyed doing it.
Then, gradually, something changed.
Working harder, achieving less
Book sales began declining. My first reaction was the obvious one: improve the books, improve the website, make the information more accessible, provide more evidence, add more facilities.
So I did.
And did.
And did.
The books are now better than they’ve ever been. The October 2026 edition is the most comprehensive yet. The Replication Pack allows anyone to examine the results independently. There are calculators, charts, and AskITM to answer questions.
And yet book royalties have fallen by approximately 80% from their earlier levels. And the steady stream of new readers has dwindled to a trickle.
For a while, I couldn’t understand it.
Then I read Tim Ferriss
Tim Ferriss, author of The 4-Hour Workweek and several other international bestsellers, recently wrote an article titled Has AI Already Killed How-To Nonfiction? His book sales had declined dramatically. A fall of around 80% compared with 2022.
That was my big ‘aha’ moment. It’s not just me!
Now, Tim Ferriss and I operate on rather different scales. He has an enormous international following, bestselling books and a substantial media presence. I’m an independent author writing about a fairly specialized investment strategy. But the percentage decline was almost identical. And I realized why.
It wasn’t the books.
It was the MARKET for books.
People have changed the way they obtain information. I certainly have. Once upon a time, if you wanted to learn how something worked, you bought a book. Now you ask an AI chatbot. You get an explanation, ask follow-up questions, and have the whole thing tailored to exactly what you want to know.
Why buy an entire book
when you can get an answer in thirty seconds?
Not so much for fiction, of course (well, not yet anyway). But for practical, how-to information, the economics are changing. And authors like me are finding ourselves on the receiving end.
The economics no longer work
There’s another aspect to this that I haven’t discussed much. For more than two years, the costs associated with the blog have not been covered by the book royalties. There’s the email distribution, website hosting, software, AI services and assorted subscriptions. None individually ruinous, but together they add up.
And then there’s the time. The weekly blog requires research, writing, charts, illustrations, market commentary, editing and distribution. I enjoy the creative work enormously. But the Monday deadline has become an obligation. And an obligation is something I never intended to create for myself.
The obvious commercial solution would be to start charging for subscriptions. But I’m not going to do that. A paid subscription would mean a continuing commitment to provide material on a regular schedule. In other words, I’d be creating an even more formal obligation.
And that rather defeats the point of having spent so much of my life working towards financial freedom.
Fighting the tide
There’s a lesson here that I really should have recognized sooner. I’ve spent years explaining why investors shouldn’t fight the market. You can have the best analysis in the world, but if you’re fighting a powerful trend, you’re making life unnecessarily difficult for yourself. And what have I been doing for the last few years?
Working harder and harder to improve
a product in a shrinking market.
It’s rather like deciding to become a better draftsman just as the world adopts CAD. Or perfecting your shorthand. Or revamping your video shop.
Hard work doesn’t necessarily produce better outcomes.
Working on the right thing matters rather more.
I should know. I’ve written books about it! So, I’ve decided it’s time to stop fighting the tide.
What happens now?
I’ve spent the last few months bringing everything up to date. Updated the book. Created the calculators. Built the Replication Pack.
Everything you need to carry on without me.
The books will remain available on Amazon. The ITM Plan itself isn’t going anywhere.
The new HeatherCullen.com
Over the coming weeks I’ll review the website and decide which resources can sensibly be retained at little or no ongoing cost. I’d particularly like to preserve useful facilities such as the calculators and charts, where practical. Other services, including AskITM and the weekly email distribution, will be discontinued.
Eventually, HeatherCullen.com will become a much simpler website, with information about the books and whatever resources it makes sense to keep available and the occasional article. The research has been done. The strategy has been documented. The results have been tested and made available for independent examination.
I don’t think anything is missing.
And finally, thank you
This is the part I find hardest to write.
One of the unexpected pleasures of the whole ITM adventure has been getting to know so many readers. I’ve loved the emails, the questions, the challenges, the stories and the conversations. Some of you have been corresponding with me for years.
And I’ve been particularly pleased when someone has written to say that something I’ve explained has helped them understand investing a little better, avoid an expensive mistake, or approach the market with greater confidence.
That was the whole point of writing the books in the first place. I’m very happy to have been able to help.
But I think it’s time for pastures new.
What I’ll do next
I’m not sure. I have plenty of ideas, and I still love investigating conventional market wisdom, testing assumptions and occasionally discovering that something everyone believes simply isn’t true.
I’ll certainly continue trading. And I doubt I’ll ever stop being curious. But I want to be free to follow whatever catches my interest, wherever it leads, without having to produce something by Monday lunchtime. I want to travel without worrying whether I’ll have an internet connection in the Arctic Circle.
And I want to spend my time doing things because I want to do them, not because I’ve promised to deliver them.
And so to new adventures . . .
So, this isn’t a sad goodbye. It’s the conclusion of a project that has given me enormous satisfaction, and which I’m proud to leave in good shape.
Thank you for coming along for the ride.
And if there’s one last piece of advice I’d like to leave you with, it’s the same advice I’ve been giving for years.
Trade the tide, not the waves.
It’s taken me a while, but I’ve finally decided to do exactly that.
Signing off – and wishing you all the very best of luck and success
Heather
Trade the tide, not the waves
18 Responses
Hi Heather,
Some good things come to an end and some change to another form of goodness.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts all this time.
I will miss all the commentary and asides.
I hope you find some easy way to share your thoughts with your followers.
Thank you again for all the help and good work.
I wish you good times ahead.
Regards
Hi Heather,
I came across your blog a little while ago through a comment on a video online. Your ITM strategy inspired me to develop one of my own, with my own set of rules. Thank you for creating something so valuable and for planting the seed that got me thinking outside the box.
I’ll keep following your work and look forward to what you share next. I wish you all the best in every new adventure you take on.
Warm greetings from Argentina ✨
Thank you for everything and all the best going forward!
I just wanted to thank you. I am really going to miss your blog. It is the first thing I read every Monday morning. I have read all you books and appreciate how unselfishly you wrote this blog without expecting any financial gain in return.Wishing you all the best in the future.
Thank You for your honesty and effort in explaining your stratagy
i will miss your Blogs and wish you all the very best and hope our paths cross ove again
You will certainly be missed, Heather. Reading your blogs has been part of my weekly ritual for quite some time.
All the best for your future endeavours.
And yes, it was me who alerted Louise Bedford to interview you. I’m really glad that happened.
You are held in very high regard by my trading colleagues, and rightly so.
Those that have found you and followed your wisdom will not be lost. You are a great teacher and reiterated the discipline through your blog. It is inevitable the time when one must gather their knowledge and travel that path alone.
Thanks for sharing your ingenious strategy with us. All the best to you, Heather!
Thank you for everything Heather! You die a Great project and work here! All the Best for your Future
Tears.
I’ve really enjoyed reading your posts. Keep me in mind if you do something new.
I’ve become reliant on you signaling ins and outs. If you have a suggestion for automating that (or anyone else here has) I’d like that.
Thanks so much Heather; I am way ahead on the trading I’ve done following you, and I always look forward to your blogs.
The principles, the methodology, the mechanics are out there for all to see, and they are as understandable as anyone could make them.
Your contribution is huge. No one could ask more.
So thank you so much, so very much.
Whatever you do next, be sure it’s exciting and a thrill.
Cheers and hugs.
Heather, sorry to see you go and want to say a big thank you. I’m sure others feel the same way I do and wish you the very best success.
I have a suggestion for you. In the last six months, I have moved to a fully automated system for publishing my personal trading system. The trading manual is available on Payhip, includes a PDF for Pinescript codes for clients for backtesting, and also includes an automated subscription through SendFox.
The SendFox email still costs me nothing (because I have less subscribers), and the email goes out once per day, but it is still very affordable even with a big subscriber list. I even have a free email that only gets sent out when there is activity so only 5-6 times per month; this could work well for you. The activity is based on a simple python code which is automatically run in Github each day based on the system rules. It is free and completely hands-off. I literally set it up once and now it runs by itself.
I say this to let you know that there are some very simple and inexpensive ways to automate everything you are doing here. When I realized I could reverse calculate RSI to give me tomorrow’s price that would satisfy my entry and exit conditions, it changed everything. Reverse calculating a moving average crossover is even easier, and you could have a simple email that sends out those crossover levels every day (tomorrow’s price that would cause the crossover to occur). Automatically. Then all you have to do is market it in some way. This is very do-able for your system, very easily done.
I don’t think you have to step away as far as you think, but if you are just burned out, I understand that too. I wish you all the best success, and I appreciate all you did here.
All good things must end and a HUGE Thank You for all you have done! Already looking forward to the new website. Nothing but the best for you and yours.
Sorry to hear about the end, but happy for what comes next for you. I have enjoyed the books and the blog
Hi Heather you have been incredibly generous with your knowledge, time and energy. I am very grateful for what I have learnt from you and will happily continue on with ITM. Enjoy every day and know that you have been a wonderful teacher.
Alex
Heather,
While I understand and respect your decision. It is very sad because you been like a guide for many of us. Yes we do have the charts and other things, but your commentary is the true value… it gave us the calm and confidence we needed. I wished we could have even couple more weeks with you.
Although I will sorely miss your weekly emails, I am so happy for you and completely understand the why! I had to take a step back this year from a second job that I really enjoyed, but added significant stress by having constant obligations and the need to plan trips around internet connection.
I want to say a huge thank you!! I originally learned options from your books and use the ITM strategy as a significant part of my portfolio. It’s so good. Genuinely, thank you and I hope you’re able to enjoy full freedom!
Heather:
Thanks! It has been a pleasure reading your books and the weekly blog.
All the best,
Richard
Wow sad news for us and good for you. I wish you and your family the best. Thank you for all you have done for us. JB